When the parking lots fill, Walden Pond State Reservation closes to all incoming visitors — no walk-ins, no drop-offs — until enough people leave. This page estimates the odds from every closure announcement posted by @waldenpondstate.
Pick when you're going. Estimates come from how often the park was actually closed at that moment on comparable days.
Weather = conditions recorded at the pond that day (temperature is the daytime high).
Cumulative: on days like the one selected above, the share of days on which the first closure had already happened by each time. The curve's plateau is the chance of any closure that day.
Based on the gap between each closure announcement and the matching “we have reopened” post.
Rule of thumb: mid-day closures reopen in about two hours as parking turns over. Closures announced after ~4 pm usually don't reopen until the next morning (the park opens at 5–7 am depending on season).
Share of days the park was closed to incoming visitors at each hour. Darker = closed more often.
Weekends & holidays
Weekdays
Share of days with at least one closure, by that day's high temperature at the pond.
Share of days with at least one capacity closure.
Days with at least one capacity closure, by year. Gray years aren't used in the estimates (2019 is partial; 2020 had COVID parking caps).
Distribution of same-day closure durations (announcement → reopening post).
Every capacity closure since 2021. The bar shows when the park was closed (7am–7pm, noon marked); hover it for exact times and duration. Filter and sort below; each row links to the closing and reopening posts.